Thursday, September 29, 2005

And they are off…!!!

The presidential election campaign got into full swing this week, when conservative presidential candidate Joaquín Lavín, accused ruling Concertación centre-left coalition presidential candidate Michelle Bachelet, as being “soft on crime” and that “criminals will vote for Bachelet” in the upcoming presidential election. Lavín accused the Concertación coalition as being “soft on crime and keeping a revolving door”, with criminals.

Lavín’s campaign languishing in the polls wants to slow down or stop the front running Bachelet. Lavín and his UDI party, tough on crime approach is akin to that of George H.W. Bush in the 1988 U.S. presidential election against former Democrat Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.

Lavín appears to have taken a page from that campaign by painting the ruling Concertación coalition as being soft on crime, keeping a revolving door in jails and that Bachelet will continue current policies because she is also "soft on crime."

What is missing in Lavín’s campaign is the emergence of Chile’s version of “Willie” Horton, the escaped murdered on a weekend pass who continued his criminal activities months after eloping from his weekend pass.

What we can expect now, in this tough on crime approach taken by the conservative and authoritarian Lavín campaign, is the revolving door attack ads that were very much in play in the Bush-Dukakis 1988 presidential election.

The President of UDI party, authoritarian-conservative senator Jovino Novoa said: since 1990 all Concertación governments have been soft on crime because “they do not know how to handle crime.”

Reading Novoa’s statement further, one would think he is evoking a time when dictator Augusto Pinochet ruled the country with an iron fist and was tough on crime.

Michelle Bachelet, distanced herself from Lavín's attack. Bachelet said she deplores the attacks, accusing Lavín of being "desperate" and that “desperation gives bad advice in politics.”

“A person who wants to be candidate for the Presidency, must make fast but rational decisions,” Bachelet said.

President Ricardo Lagos, who has remained in the sidelines so far during the presidential campaign, ridiculed Lavín’s comments by wondering “who is left in the country who does not vote Concertación”.

Businessman Sebastián Piñera, a right-wing liberal, who is running as president for the rightist RN Party, also pressed Bachelet on crime but stayed away from the dispute saying criminals do not have political colours.

The presidential election campaign that has Bachelet far in front of Lavín and Piñera -who are tied in the polls- to date has been calm and dormant. Lavín’s move is an effort to move away from Piñera and attack what is perceived to be Bachelet’s weakness, crime.

But crime will not be an issue in this election. Lavín in the 1999, presidential election tried and failed with the same approach.

In fact, all crime statistics in the past 5 years have shown a downward trend. But the perception in the public is, crime is high.

The December 11 presidential campaign is just getting underway, but the gloves are already off.

This campaign may yet turn interesting, but all seems to indicate Bachelet is running at a leisure pace confident she will win the election in the first ballot. Polls show that, and the mood in the electorate backs it up.

It appears Lavin’s approach is the desperate action of a candidate without any tracking within the electorate and watching his second stab at the Presidency withering in crime hot air.